18th October 2023 saw the official ONS release of UK inflation figures for September.
CPI was 6.7% & RPI was 8.9%
It’s these figures that determine BA Pension rises to be applied in April 2024. NAPS rises are capped at 5% so there’s still a gap between inflation and the cap but it’s not as large as in 2022. APS members can have a reasonable expectation of an 8.9% rise, assuming the APS trustee approves a discretionary increase of 2.2%, as per the terms of the 2019 APS Settlement Agreement. Deferred APS & NAPS pensions will also rise by these amounts.
Once GMP age is reached, that portion of pension determined to be Guaranteed Minimum Pension (GMP) does not receive full inflation protection. Pre 1988 GMP does not rise at all, Post 1988 GMP rises by 3%. Members see these calculations in their annual pension increase statement.
UK State Pension is expected to rise by 8.5% in April 2024 in line with earnings, assuming the “triple lock” is applied.
The CPIH figure, which includes CPI and owner-occupier housing costs was slightly lower at 6.3%. It’s the government’s stated intention, assuming no change in policy, to align CPIH & RPI from 2030 onwards.